Objective To investigate the changes in the quality of Dagu chicken jerky during storage at different temperatures and establish a shelf-life prediction model based on thiobarbituric acid reactive substance (TBARS) value and colony count.Methods The Dagu chicken jerky was stored at 4, 25, and 37 ℃, and the changes in pH value, total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N), TBARS value, acid value (AV), color, texture, sensory characteristics, and colony count were measured. The Arrhenius equation was used to establish a shelf-life kinetic model of Dagu chicken jerky, with colony count, TBARS value, and TVB-N value as quality indicators.Results After being stored at three different temperatures for 42 days, the Dagu chicken jerky showed a decrease and then an increase in pH value. The sensory score and L^* value showed a downward trend. The colony count, AV, TBARS value, a^* value, and b^* value all showed an upward trend, and the hardness and elasticity gradually decreased. The activation energies for the colony count, TBARS value, and TVB-N value of Dagu chicken jerky were 24 719.859 0 kJ/mol, 18 027.872 2 kJ/mol, and 21 092.791 0 kJ/mol, respectively, and the pre-exponential factors (k₀) were 1 375.950 4, 30.244 1, and 898.026 9, respectively. After verification, the relative error of the prediction model with TBARS value as the quality indicator was greater than 10%, while the relative error of the prediction model with colony count and TVB-N value as the quality indicator was within ±10%, showing a good prediction effect.Conclusion The prediction model with colony count and TVB-N value as the quality indicator can effectively predict the shelf-life of Dagu chicken jerky stored at temperatures ranging from 4 ℃ to 37 ℃.