Studied the relationship between the filling factor of cigarette middle section and the radial compression amount when measuring the hardness of cigarettes, and then established the prediction model of cigarette hardness. The results showed that the goodness of fit of the model was over 98%, the standardized mean square error of the test was 0.6, and the average relative error was 3.7%. The prediction error of the model was far less than the normal fluctuation range of the index and the tolerance range specified in the product technical standard, and the prediction effect of the model was good. Meanwhile, the model was applicable to various specifications of cigarettes, which can be applied to the prediction of cigarette hardness in actual production.