According to the analysis of sensory, physic-chemical characteristics(VFA) and microbiological characteristics (total bacterial) for Ponkan fruit wine, using Weibull Hazard Analysis(WHA)，chemical reaction kinetic model and Arrhenius equation, the shelf-life prediction models were established under two different kinds of indexes, respectively. The results showed that the shelf-life end point under different storage temperature of 25,30,35 and 40 ℃ by the prediction model of sensory evaluation were 620, 436, 310 and 222 d, respectively, and the relative error was in the range of -5.48% to 5.52%. The predicted end points of the shelf-life under the evaluation index of volatile acid were 633, 450, 319, and 227 d, respectively, and the relative error was in the range of -2.74% to 896%. The correlation between the changes of the total number of bacteria and the storage temperature were not obvious, and this was not suitable for the establishment of shelf-life prediction model. The verification results showed that the prediction model based on the sensory evaluation index was better. Thus, this could provide the further basis data for the early warning of the quality and storage of Ponkan fruit wine.