Objective To establish a shelf-life prediction model for oil-preserved meat based on total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N).Methods Under the storage conditions of 4, 25, and 37 ℃, changes in the following parameters of oil-preserved meat are determined: water activity, pH value, TVB-N value, thiobarbituric acid (TBARS value), peroxide value (POV value), and sensory quality. A comprehensive analysis is conducted using the first-order kinetic model and the Arrhenius equation.Results Storage temperature significantly affects the quality deterioration rate of oil-preserved meat. The TVB-N value is closely correlated with storage time (R²=0.992) and is therefore selected as the key indicator to construct the shelf-life prediction model. Combined with the Arrhenius equation (R²=0.956, E_a=19 809.28 kJ/mol), the predicted shelf-lives of oil-preserved meat at 4, 25, and 37 ℃ are 327, 178, and 130 days, respectively. The relative errors between the predicted values and the measured values are ±2.9%, ±8.1%, and ±1.8%, respectively.Conclusion The TVB-N-based model can accurately predict the shelf-lives of oil-preserved meat at different temperatures, filling the gap in the quantitative shelf-life prediction of traditional cured meat products.